Listen Here
By Victoria Hansen
hansenv@findlay.edu
As students left campus for spring break on Feb. 28, news began to break of American and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. The first round of strikes, landing at 9:40 a.m. Tehran Time (1:10 a.m. EST), hit missile infrastructure, military sites, and killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Following these attacks, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei was declared the new supreme leader of Iran on March 8.
Both the U.S. and Israel have claimed that these strikes were preemptive, to protect both nations from unnamed threats.
“The State of Israel has launched a preemptive strike against Iran to remove threats to the State of Israel,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Feb. 28. Katz did not mention what threats were being struck against in his statement.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 2 that the goal of the strikes was to “destroy the missile threats, destroy the navy, no nukes.” He denied that the goal of the attacks was regime change.
“This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change,” Hegseth said. “And the world is better off for it.”
These denials of a regime change have been undermined by President Donald Trump declaring in a speech that “the hour of your freedom is at hand,” and urging Iranians to “take over your government,” once strikes are over.
Iran retaliated to these attacks by launching drone strikes and ballistic missiles at Israel, U.S. military bases, and countries that host American forces such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.
Along with these strikes, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a 31-mile-wide shipping route in the Persian Gulf that sees about 20% of the world’s oil pass through it. Crude oil now costs $100 a barrel, more than a third more expensive than it was before the war. Asia is set to be hit the hardest by this blockade, as 90% of the gas and oil in the Strait was set for Asia, according to the BBC.
Despite only 7% of the U.S.’s crude oil and only 2% of its gasoline passing through the strait, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the attacks have led to a rise in U.S. gasoline prices. According to AAA’s Fuel Price Tracker, the current average price of gasoline in Toledo is $3.42 per gallon. Last month, the average was $2.81. A rise in gasoline costs will lead to a price rise for everything as shipping costs begin to follow the direction of gasoline.
Along with gasoline, 13% of the world’s fertilizer is produced in Persian Gulf countries. Two-thirds of this fertilizer is nitrogen-based, which plays a key role in producing healthy crops at the beginning of the spring growing season. Over the past month, the price of urea, a common fertilizer has gone up 30%. More expensive fertilizer means that farmers must either choose to buy more expensive fertilizer, which would mean that they need to raise their prices to maintain the profit margin; or use less fertilizer, which would lead to smaller harvests, leading to a decrease of supply with the same level of demand.
The timeline to end the war is unclear. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X on March 11 that Iran will end the war if the U.S. and Israel recognize Iran’s “legitimate rights,” pay reparations, and guarantee against future aggression. Until then, Iran will not let “a liter of oil” pass through the Strait.
In Israel, Katz has said on March 11 that the war will continue “without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign.”
Meanwhile, in the U.S., Trump said on March 11 that the war will end soon, as there is “practically nothing left to target,” and that “Any time I want it to end, it will end.” This contradicts Hegseth’s statement on March 10 that the U.S. “will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated” but “on our timeline and at our choosing.” With tensions unresolved internationally and between allies, the war — and its fiscal uncertainty — can be expected to last far past midterms.
