Ohio’s Senate race not reflective of national picture
By: Mac Williams
Incumbent Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking reelection on Tuesday to a third term in the United States Senate. Brown defeated incumbent Mike Dewine in 2006, challenger Josh Mandel in 2012, and now faces Jim Renacci in 2018.
According to realclearpolitics.com, a polling institution, Brown holds a six-point lead over Renacci as of Oct. 28. The average of NBC News, Quinnipiac, Suffolk, and Emerson polls were used to determine the spread of six points.
The lead for Brown is welcome news for other Democrats in the Senate as Ohio voted for President Donald Trump in the last election cycle. But this year’s senate race in Ohio is not reflective of the national picture when it comes to U.S. Senate races.
According to FiveThirtyEight, an organization that forecasts election outcomes, Republicans have an 82.8 percent chance to maintain control of the U.S. Senate. Conversely, Democrats have an 85.8 percent chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. To many people this may seem unusual. How can one party win one house of Congress while the other party maintains control of another house?
The simple answer is that the math is not very good for Democrats when it comes to the U.S Senate in this election cycle. According to CNN, there are 35 senate seats up for reelection in 2018, 26 of those seats are held by Democrats. With Democrats in a position to defend more seats then Republicans, it is more likely that Republicans maintain control of the Senate until at least 2020 when more Republican held seats will be up for grabs.
According to realclearpolitics, there are five Senate seats held by Democrats that are either a toss-up or favor Republicans. Republicans currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate and with the prospects of picking up at least a few more seats, Republicans look to hold the Senate for at least another two years.
Even though Ohio’s senate race seems to be well in hand for Brown and Democrats, the national picture tells a very different story.